Hillary has a plan; win the popular vote and persuade the super-delegates that she is not just the better candidate but has a moral claim to the nomination. Should the gap in pledged delegates be less than 100, then this might just work.

The only problem she has is that the maths is hard; very hard. Excluding Florida, Hillary needs to pull back 410,000 votes between now and the final primary. (And she’ll be hard pressed to include Puerto Rico voters, who cannot vote in the Presidential election, in her tally.) It doesn’t help that turnout has tended to be highest in the States Obama has won by big margins: in Vermont an astonishing 24% of the population voted in the primaries, in Wisconsin it was 20% and in DC 19%.

Lets run the figures. If we assume 15% turnout in the remaining primaries and caucuses (above the 12-13% across the contest so far), and give Hillary the benefit of the doubt (and some pretty large margins), where does this leave us?

Even with pretty generous assumptions, Hillary is struggling. Can she achieve it? Yes, but it will take a fundamental shift in turnout levels, and/or some pretty significant wins. Her chance of assuming the nomination (assuming no scandals, etc.): perhaps 20%

Robert Smithson is Mike’s son and is the person who four years ago suggested that a blog on political betting might be a good idea. He has also managed and developed the site’s technical infrastructure. His wife, Lucille, has played a big part in the deisgn.