It’s 5/2 that Darling will be out this year

William Hill have put up a market, which is online, that “Alastair Darling Will Be Out Of Office By The End Of The Year? (2008)”. I’ve checked with the firm and “out of office” means no longer being chancellor.

Given the poor poll ratings that he’s getting and the growing problems he’s facing this seems like a pretty good bet. The handling of Northern Rock will be a major Tory and Lib Dem issue for weeks to come and there is always the possibility of more bad news. Also Ed Balls is waiting in the wings and he does not give the impression of being a very patient person.

All of this is in a context of a developing media narrative which does not look good for the government.

We know that Brown will be loyal to the last but if the pressure mounts then, surely, there’s a good chance that Darling will be moved or sacked completely.

The timing of the bet is good. To win a change can happen at any time between now and the end of the year.

Get your money on – this is good value.

Mike Smithson