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Month: January 2008

What do these figures mean for Dave and Gord?

What do these figures mean for Dave and Gord?

Is the new leadership turning the party around? I’ve long argued that the battle for the next election is about the centre ground and, in particular whether Labour can recover many of the votes that switched to the Lib Dems in 2005 and how far Cameron’s Tories can go in attracting and retaining supporters of Clegg’s party. Reproduced above is from the full dataset of this month’s Populus poll and shows how support split based on what respondents said they…

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Who ended up with the 250-1 Hillary headache?

Who ended up with the 250-1 Hillary headache?

How the prices changed wildly during the New Hampshire count This is a chart that appeared on the Betfair site on Wednesday morning and shows the violent changes in the betting price on Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire as the news came in. The most stunning part is the sudden surge in her price to 250/1 as some early reports suggested that the polls were right and that the former First Lady was about to come in second. This records…

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Remember when Gord looked like this?

Remember when Gord looked like this?

Will the honeymoon bets come to the aid of the NH losers? Quite a few regulars took a battering in the betting on the New Hampshire primary and I note that Peter the Punter reported losses of £1300 – ouch!. This has prompted me to look over outstanding bets and I discovered one that was very popular amongst PBers in late June and early July at the start of the Prime Minister’s extraordinary media honeymoon. For it was not only…

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So what did you think would happen in 2008?

So what did you think would happen in 2008?

A look at the Forecaster of the Year numbers The above table shows the leading predictions for the “what will happen in 2008?” section – there were 106 entries altogether. Other key findings: Jacqui Smith is only predicted to remain as Home Secretary for an average 253 days, while Darling’s average predicted tenure at No 11 is 287 days. The average high/low poll figures for the parties are Labour 37/28, the Conservatives 44/35, and the Lib Dems 22/14, while the…

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How will Clegg do first time out?

How will Clegg do first time out?

Will he be able to cope with the Vince Cable comparisons? The first PMQs after the Christmas recess is at noon and will be the first occasion when the young new Lib Dem leader gets his chance to put two questions to the Prime Minister. After yesterday’s 3% boost in the Lib Dem share with Populus Clegg must be feeling that bit more confident. No one will be aware more than him what happened exactly two years ago when his…

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Clinton is the “comeback kid” in New Hampshire once more

Clinton is the “comeback kid” in New Hampshire once more

White House race turned on its head in rollercoaster evening Hillary beats Obama in major upset, ahead by 39-37 McCain winner in GOP race, leads Romney 37-32 Clinton, now down to 1.6, favourite again for nomination in frenzied trading Obama traded at 1.01 in NH after BBC “big win” report What happened with the polling for the Democrat race? UK Politics – there will be a “live PMQs thread” appearing about 11.45 ahead of Clegg’s debut appearance as Lib Dem…

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New Hampshire election night special… continued 2

New Hampshire election night special… continued 2

Continue the discussions here as the New Hampshire results come in McCain wins GOP race Hillary leads Obama – is a major upset on the cards? PBC – the best place to be on Election Night Paul Maggs “Double Carpet” Guest Editor

New Hampshire election night special… continued

New Hampshire election night special… continued

Continue the discussions here as the New Hampshire results are digested This article is a “slimmed-down” one to help ease server pressure. PBC – the best place to be on Election Night Paul Maggs “Double Carpet” Guest Editor