Will you be staying up for the big political betting night? With the very first test of public opinion in the 2008 White House race due to take place tomorrow night the big question is how many Iowans are going to bother to turn out to attend the caucus meetings that could set the tone for the whole process of choosing the Democratic and GOP candidates. The critical element is that so few people are likely to be involved. For…
How well did you do at forecasting the political scene last year? The final results for the 2007 PBC prediction competition have now been number-crunched – the top 20 are shown above, while the full results are available via the link below. Congratulations to the leading forecasters and thanks to everyone who took part. PBC 2007 results detail 2007 – a brief look back The 2007 political year has now been put to bed, in many ways a momentous year…
Will the state’s main paper be the top pollster again? In the 2004 race for the Democratic nomination the final poll for the state’s main newspaper, the Des Moines Register, came closest to predicting what was a sensational result – the defeat of the early front runner and heavy odds-on favourite, Howard Dean. After his defeat there the former governor of Vermont never really recovered and the winner of the state caucuses, John Kerry, went on to take the nomination….