The above are the mid afternoon (1545 GMT) prices on the races for the Democratic and the Republican nominees for this November’s US Presidential election.

The picture is getting much clearer as we move into the next crucial phase of state primaries. On Saturday 26 January it’s the South Carolina Democratic Primary and the following Tuesday there will be the crucial Republican and the Florida Democratic primaries. Once all those have been completed we should have an even firmer view of the two politicians who will head their parties tickets in November.

Although Obama looks set to win South Carolina this appears to have been discounted by the markets and unless there is a huge victory there I do not see much change in the Democratic betting.

The GOP race in Florida could be crucial for all the contenders still in the race and might well produce a surprise. Can Giuliani finally get his act together? Will McCain be able to hold onto to his lead? Is this the moment for Mitt Romney. Is it possible that the Iowa GOP victor, Mike Huckabee could get back in the race again?

My view is that the final will be Clinton against McCain or Romney.

Mike Smithson