New buy levels put Cameron only 17/18 seats short

In the high risk high reward arena of commons seats spread betting there’s been a significant move to the Tories in the aftermath of the Northern Rock statement and the ongoing stock market troubles. When this was last covered here at the end of last week the highest Tory buy level was 304 seats – 21 short of an overall majority.

In the past 24 hours there’ve been big moves to the Tories so that Sporting Index, shown above has now moved to 307 seats along with Spreadfair while IG Index is at 308. The sell levels are about six seats lower.

I stand to be corrected but I think that this is the highest level that the Tories have been at since the 1992 general election.

Normally these markets move up in relatively small steps and a three/four seat jump is quite unusual. Whether this will be sustained or even move higher it is hard to predict. But the current level are considerably smaller than the 345 Tory seats that the commons seat calculators are predicting on the recent 10% Tory poll leads.

What makes this form of betting attractive is that the more you are right in your prediction the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose. Also the operators like Sporting Index have made it much easier to open credit accounts almost instantly on-line so that you do not have to hand over any money when you bet – a feature that’s invaluable when betting on an outcome that might be more than two years away.

But be warned. If you buy the Tories at 308 seats at £50 a seat and they only finish with 258 MPs then you would lose £2500.

Declaration of interest As part of my plan to put PBC on a more sustainable financial basis there is now an agreement in place between the site and Sporting Index under which commissions are paid for accounts that are opened. If you are opening an account then please use the links here.

Mike Smithson