Frank Luntz gets the reaction of NH voters

Once again it is the fights for the main party nominations in the 2008 White House race that dominate the political betting news. After Thursday night’s Iowa caucuses the next big decision point is New Hampshire where the first proper primaries take place on Tuesday.

The Democrat betting has seen big changes over the past 24 hours with Hillary Clinton moving from her odds-on favourite position to second favourite across almost all markets. As at 0530 GMT the Obama price on the Betfair exchange was 0.82/1 with Clinton out to 1.28/1. The US specialists Intrade have Obama at 55.5 out of 100 and Clinton at 41.

There might be possible value to be had with the traditional UK bookmakers which have yet to adjust their prices in line with the developing news. There is a wide range of betting options on the upcoming primaries.

A major political development has been reaction to the Saturday night debates between the contenders. This was a key opportunity for Hillary to regain the initiative but from the reaction of voters in the Frank Luntz focus group, click the link in the picture, it did not help.

There’s been a spate of post-Iowa polls for New Hampshire one showing a 10% Obama lead. Others have ranged between a tie and just one per cent.

In the GOP race things continue to look good for the 71 year old Senator from Arizona – John McCain who now has leads of between five and six points.

If this comes down to a battle between the existing favourites there will be an age gap of a quarter of a century between the nominees.

Mike Smithson