There’s been quite a lot of activity on the US election this morning and the main development has been a switch of favourites for the Democratic nomination on Intrade – the Irish based exchange which is focused very much on the US market. Intrade’s prices are presented on a scale of 0-100.

At 1420 the last trades on the market were Obama 51 and Clinton 48.

In the UK the Betfair price has tightened considerably on Obama and has eased on Hillary but the spouse of the ex-President is still the odds on favourite.

As far as I can see there has been no specific news – a poll or other development – which might have prompted the change. It is probably the result of more people absorbing the implications of Iowa and assessing the chances for both main contenders in New Hampshire next Tuesday.

This evening there’s to be a TV debate between the two plus John Edwards and this might provide the platform for Hillary to get back into the contest.

Mike Smithson