With 12 days to go to Iowa – what are Obama’s chances?

Cast your mind back to May 26th 2005. Tony Blair was just completing the third week of Labour’s third term, Charles Kennedy was still Lib Dem leader and Michael Howard had announced that he was standing down with David Davis the hot favourite to succeed him.

The main thread that morning was about a young black senator from Illinois who was relatively unknown on this side of the Atlantic and who, it was suggested, could be the next President of the United States.

The recommendation was that Barack Obama was worth a punt at the then 50/1 that was available on him succeeding George Bush. One of PBC’s most long-standing contributors, Roger, was the first to kick of the discussion with a firm rejection of the idea.

The thread was, I think, our first on the 2008 White House Race, and it’s fascinating going through the various contributions in the context of what we know now.

In just twelve days time we should get a real sense whether the tip on that May Thursday two and a half years ago is going to make progress. For if Hillary comes on top in the Iowa caucus then the Democratic fight could almost be over. But if she slips into second, or even third place, then she’ll have a fight on her hands and our 50/1 bet might look very good.

The latest price on Obama for the nomination is 2.4/1 while Hillary reigns strongly at 0.54/1.

Mike Smithson