Tories move to 45% share with the internet pollster

A staggering poll by YouGov for tomorrow’s Sunday Times puts the Tories 13 points ahead of Labour on 45% – a level that the party has not been at in decades and would mean a substantial majority at the general election.

The shares are with comparisons on the last YouGov poll nine days ago are: CON 45% (+2): LAB 32% (nc): LD 14% (nc)

Putting these shares into the Anthony Wells seat predictor and we get CON 373: LAB 230: LD 18: OTH 29.

This would mean a Tory majority of 96 seats.

The Martin Baxter seat predictor on his Electoral Calculus site produces a Tory majority 102. Its seat breakdown is CON 376: LAB 228: LD 16 seats

UPDATE BETTING NEWS: There’s been a sharp increase in the spread prices on the Common seats spread markets. Sporting Index have just taken their market down while they re-assess their prices while Spreadfair has seen a 6 seat shift to 305 seats as the buy figure for the Tories. At 7.40pm I managed to get a £60 a seat bet on with IG Index at the 295 level. That, surely, will not last long.

Mike Smithson