CON 42%: (+1), LAB 35% (+3), LD 14% (-3)

The massive face-to-face monthly survey by Ipsos-MORI involving a sample of 1859 has just been published. The changes above show the variations on the the firm’s November telephone poll where the sample was only about half the size.

The firm’s latest Political Monitor shows the Conservatives with a 7-point lead and also that David Cameron has the best net satisfaction rating (+6) of any Conservative leader since John Major won the 1992 election. This compares with Brown’s net rating of -23 and the Government’s -37.

Mori’s figures are based on those “absolutely certain to vote”. Other findings included 55% thinking that the economy would deteriorate over the next 12 months, while the leading “important issue facing Britain” was immigration, followed by crime/law & order.

[“Having just got back home after my five day stint in hospital my first betting move has been to reverse my positions, at a not insignificant loss, in the general election spread markets. From a position where I was a Labour seller I have now become a Labour buyer. It’s going to be hard for the Tories to maintain their publicity surge during the holiday period and the party could be vulnerable to changes when the new Lib Dem leader is announced next Monday.

The novelty of a new man in charge of Britain’s third party will attract a reasonable level of media attention which could reinforce the party’s position in the expected spate of pre-Christmas polls. If, as expected, it is Clegg then the media narrative might be of a threat to Cameron which could impact on Tory poll ratings.” – Mike Smithson]

Elsewhere…

How damaging will what the Standard’s calling the “lost 500K” be to Ken Livingstone?

CNN’s latest matchup polls show Hillary beating all GOP opponents except McCain, while the Drudge Report suggests the Democrats are holding off Huckabee (now back to 5.8 on Betfair) as they see him as an “easy kill” in November

Medvedev has called for Putin to become PM

Dow down almost 300 points after Fed cuts rate by a quarter point

Betting market prices are here.

Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”

Guest Editor