Why PBC is breaking the embargo

A YouGov poll of 678 Lib Dem party members that will be released later this evening by Sky News has Nick Clegg beating Chris Huhne by 56% to 44% in the membership ballot. But the race could still be close because 52% of those questioned have not voted yet only 52% of those questioned had already voted and 24% said they were undecided.

The pollster built up a good reputation for party membership polls when in 2001 and 2005 it got the Tory contest correct to within 1%. The firm did not do as well this June with their Labour deputy leadership surveys where it had Alan Johnson ahead. That was, however, a complicated election because of the transferable vote system amongst six candidates.

The information has been provided by Sky to Iain Dale and other journalists on an embargoed basis and he has the story all ready to release at the appointed hour (2200)

However, following some advice by a contributor on the last thread, it is possible through Google Blogs search to find the key elements of the survey.

I was not given the information from Sky and I do not feel constrained by the embargo.

Throughout the day the Clegg price has tightened on Betfair and one can only assume that news has seeped out to some punters.

When something as price sensitive as this comes out then the information should be available to everybody – not just the chosen few.

Mike Smithson