Tory ICM margin moves from 6% to 11%

A new poll from ICM for the News of the World shows a Tory lead of 11% and means that four surveys from four separate polling organisation in the past week have recorded significant moves to the Conservatives.

Based on what limited information is available the shares are with changes on the last ICM survey a week ago – CON 41% (+4): LAB 30% (-1): LD 19% (-2).

Given Labour’s appalling week party officials might have been expecting much much worse. At least this poll has them still in the 30s.

The 11% deficit equals that which the party recorded in March 2007 which was the biggest margin for at least a decade an a half.

So the four polls this week have had Tory leads of 14% (COMRES), 11% (ICM and YouGov) and 9% (Ipsos-Mori) – meaning they are all in the same ball-park.

Although the seat predictors suggest that these polling numbers are likely to give the Tories an overall majority (325 seats or more) punters on the spread-betting markets are being much more cautious.

My guess is that we won’t see serious betting market moves until we get some polls during more normal times. The last few weeks have clearly been abnormal. I’m still a buyer of Tory seats though I’ve reduced my position to just under £100 a seat.

Mike Smithson