Changes planned for the New Year After trying to run the site and cope with demanding jobs for nearly four years I am leaving my post at the Open University at Christmas so I can focus much more on Politicalbetting. This is a big change for me but it has become inevitable because trying to do both has become almost impossible. This has been accentuated by the intensity of the Brown-Cameron battle, the Lib Dem leadership changes, all the facets…
Will playing the terror card deflect attention from PMQs? For the first time in three weeks there’ll be PMQs in the commons and after the recent batterings Brown is going to extraordinary length to dominate the news agenda today. According to the Mole column in the First Post the PM “has taken charge of a major announcement…on terrorism and border controls in order to steady the ship when everyone else is looking decidedly sea-sick.Lord West, the former First Sea Lord,…
Who is going to be the next one in the job? This is the Betfair market on the next home secretary which, given the current pressure on Jacqui Smith, might just be something that could take off fast. I find this a hard call but the chances of her hanging in there until a 2009 or 2010 general election must be pretty slim. So which of the current Labour ministers on the list would get the promotion. I quite fancy…
Are the silver voters behind the Tory surge? The weekend ICM poll for the Sunday Express poll was so exceptional that it is worth looking in some detail at the data which is now available. And the striking feature for me is the split amongst those aged 65 years and above – the pensioner group. For the 61% Tory score against 24% for Labour and just 7% for the Lib Dems is really quite amazing. Normally the older you are…
How the numbers show that he has a lot to smile about Judging by the latest round of press comment and the reaction to the polls you would have thought that Brown had brought his party to the point of electoral disaster with an inglorious election defeat being the only possible outcome. Yet are these perceptions correct? For the numbers suggest that under Gordon Labour’s polling position has been transformed with the number of people telling pollsters they would vote…
Has the media narrative turned against her? In little more than seven weeks we’ll have the first phase of the 2008 White House race with the Democratic and Republican caucuses in Iowa. That will be followed days later by the New Hampshire primary. Over the coming weeks there will be a build up of stories and betting activity as both parties start the process of deciding who should be their candidate in the election on the first Tuesday in November….
Cameron’s party now ahead on commons seats spread markets The main polling news overnight is a new ICM survey for the Sunday Express which has the following shares compared with the last poll by the firm nearly two weeks ago – CON 43% (+3): LAB 35% (nc): LD 15% (-3) So the main change is that three point shift from the Lib Dems to Cameron’s party reflecting, I would suggest, news coverage during the week following the Queen’s Speech. All…
Are English towns more sensitive to extra motoring taxation? One of the most original and thought-provoking guest articles that we’ve had on the site was the one by Blair Freebairn in October on the nature of the marginal constituencies where the next general election will be decided. He observed that the 201 key marginals “….don’t concentrate in Wales, Scotland, London, the major cities or the truly rural areas. They aren’t really regional. They are heavily concentrated in Medium English Towns…