Is this Labour’s biggest crisis in a decade?

After what the Mole in The First Post is describing as Labour’s worst crisis in a decade of power there’s been movement on the commons seat spread markets so that for the first time since June Brown’s party is behind.

In this form of betting you buy and sell the number of seats that the parties will get at the next election as though they were stocks and shares. Much of the activity is short-term with punters trying to forecast how other punters will see things, say, after the next set of polls come out. This evening’s spreads are:-

Spreadfair: CON 285-289.7: LAB 275-281: LD 48.5-51.5 seats
Sporting Index: CON 282-288: LAB 280-286: LD 46-49 seats
IG Index: CON 280-286: LAB 280-286: LD 48-51 seats

The next big events that might move the markets are the end of month opinion surveys from ComRes, Ipsos-Mori, ICM and YouGov. If these show a worsening in Labour’s position then we are likely to see to more movement away from the party.

Mike Smithson