Mori shows a 5% swing to the Tories since its last poll

A Mori poll for the Sun shows the Conservatives on 41, Labour on 38, and the Lib Dems on 11, which represent changes of +7, -3, -5 since the last Mori poll taken shortly after Brown’s speech to the Labour conference.

This is a swing of 5% to the Conservatives, although fieldwork dates remain to be confirmed. These figures are identical to the recent YouGov poll showing a 3% lead for the Conservatives, and once again the Lib Dems are being squeezed hard – the gap between them and the Conservatives is 30 points, compared to about 10 at the 2005 election.

Meanwhile Labour will be waiting for further polls to see whether the Conservative lead is topping out at 3%, following a disastrous week for the government, or whether there is still further to fall. Brown still leads Cameron by 45-29 on the best PM question, but Gordon’s lead is sharply down from the 58-17 advantage he enjoyed in September.

Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”

Guest Editor

Mike Smithson returns on 18th October

Paul Maggs runs The Election Game – click on the logo to email for more information.