Is there still value betting on Labour?

The top box shows the latest commons seat spreads from the market that I play the most – how many seats Labour will get at the next election. Underneath are the spreads that existed on June 27th – just as Gordon was being driven back down the Mall after becoming Prime Minister.

This is a betting exchange where the prices are not set by the bookmaker but what individual punters are prepared to risk. As such I always think that it is a better guide to punter opinion than the other spread firms where the bookmaker adjusts the spreads.

The joy of this form of betting is that you can get out and take your profits now if the spreads have moved in your favour. Thus, as I reported on Wednesday morning, I bought Labour at the 310 seat level. I could now sell that at 317.4 and 317 seats. If I did then my profits would be 7.4 times my stake level.

Another joy of this form of betting is that most people find it easy to get a credit account so you have to put up no money now. You might be asked to make a deposit if the market turns against you but it is not like other forms of betting where you have to part with a whole wedge of cash now in order to back.

At the moment I am staying with my £53 a seat Labour bet though I watch things very carefully. The danger, of course, is the potential for big losses. So if Brown only got 260 seats I would be down 50 times my stake level – £2650.

Mike Smithson