And ICM looks like another 6-7% Labour lead With the flooding story continuing to dominate the news the Guardian has postponed publication of its ICM survey for July which was carried out over the weekend in the immediate aftermath of Thursday’s by elections. So we don’t know the precise figures but Michael Crick on Newsnight last night suggested it was in the same region as the last ICM poll a week and a half ago which had Labour 7% ahead….
How are Gord and Dave doing as the crisis continues? As was seen in the US in 2005 the way that governments respond to natural disasters such as flooding can have a significant and lasting political impact. The manner of the Bush administration’s response Hurricane Katrina was cited by many as a major reason why the Republicans did so badly in the US mid-term elections last November. Clearly what we have had in the UK in the past few weeks…
Are their lessons from what Labour did after Black Wednesday? As we’ve discussed on the previous thread things don’t look too good for the Tory leader, David Cameron, this morning. With two new opinion polls showing Labour in the 40s and reports of Tory MPs wanting a confidence vote this is certainly going to be a period that will test him to the hilt. Much of the current crisis has been driven by Thursday’s by elections in Sedgefield and Ealing…
The pressure builds up on Cameron Another big boost to Brown’s Labour comes with a YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Times showing the party now has a 7% margin. These are the shares compared with the last YouGov poll three weeks ago – CON 33% (-2): LAB 40% (+2): LD 15% (nc). Also in tomorrow’s papers is a report in the Sunday Telegraph that “At least two Conservative MPs – and possibly as many as six – have called for…
So how did you do? Full results for the competition are available here: Sedgefield & Southall Results In Sedgefield, Ian Catchpole, Tyson, and Stephen Fielding led the way with scores of 2.3, 3.5, and 5.0, while in Southall, Mandroid, Joe Bentley, and Tyson had the best results, with 5.4, 6.8, and 7.4. Finally, on the tie-breaker, Peter Cranie and Stonch both predicted JohnLoony’s vote tally to be 187 against an actual result of 188. If you don’t have Excel, these…
Would a “back me or sack me” move stop the whisperings? I don’t know what the look on David Cameron’s face was like when he heard the Ealing Southall result in the early hours of yesterday but could it have been as bad as this Daily Mail picture taken at the count in Stafford at the 1997 General Election when he lost a Tory seat to Labour. Ealing Southall, like his first bid to become an MP ten years ago,…
The Big Issues Don’t Always Sway Elections Even in general elections, matters that are of purely local significance can seriously affect the outcome in any given constituency. The obvious example is hospital reorganisations. Many health service professionals are convinced that closing A & E units in smaller hospitals, and concentrating services on larger hospitals, produces better health outcomes. They may very well be right, but the political consequences can be horrendous for any governing party trying to defend the seat…