Could he make it past Giuliani to be the Republican nominee?

Without actually having declared yet, Fred Thompson has already made a big impact on the 2008 White House race. In recent polling, he has normally been in the top two candidates for the Republican nomination, leading Giuliani by one point in the last Rasmussen poll, and with an average of 19% on the Real Clear Politics numbers.

On the betting markets, he is close behind Giuliani in the race for the GOP nomination, quoted at 3.3 on Betfair with Rudy at 2.94, Romney at 5, and McCain dead in the water at 27. (On the Democrat nominee market, Clinton is at 2.06, Obama 3.05, while for the White House, Democrats are 1.6 and the GOP at 2.62, which I think is underpriced.)

It is still not clear when, or even if, he will actually enter the race, however. It was reported that he would declare as a candidate over the Independence Day weekend, but this didn’t happen. The latest position seems to be that he has made a decision on whether to run, but is not ready to announce that decision yet. If Thompson decides not to run, the biggest beneficiary could well be the cash-rich Mitt Romney, who interestingly leads the RCP numbers in the early caucus / primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire – and the 2008 primary calendar will be the most front-loaded ever.

By-Election Markets:

Sedgefield: Lab 1.02, LD 34, Con 200

Southall: Lab 1.81, Con 3.85, LD 4

Interestingly, considering it is the lower-profile contest, Sedgefield has 31K matched on Betfair to 16K for Southall.

All the market prices are available here – please use the links on these pages to place bets, as pb.com receives commission, which helps with the costs of running the site.

Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”

Guest Editor

Mike Smithson returns on 16th July

Paul Maggs runs The Election Game – click on the logo to email for more information.