Which way will the market go next?

After moving to its highest level for more than a year following the Labour’s solid poll progress there’s been a move back since yesterday’s events in the Commons.

The Spreadfair Commons seat spreads are now CON 271.1-274.9: LAB 287-291: LDs 48.1-53.6. Earlier in the week Labour reached 291-294 seats.

With this form of betting punters buy and sell the number of seats they think the parties will get at the election. You make or lose money based on the accuracy of your prediction. So if you sell Labour at 287 seats and they end up with 327 – enough for a majority of 4 – you would be 40 seats out and would lose forty times your stake level. So a trade at the £25 level could see you losing £1000. Spread-betting is not for the faint-hearted.

As more punters are coming onto these markets the Commons spreads become a good guide of punter opinion. As I reported here at the weekend I changed my position from a Labour buyer to a Labour seller at the 290 seat mark.

There are no scheduled polls this weekend though it’s highly likely that we will see at least one survey. Will the recent polling trend continue? Will reaction to yesterday’s PMQs have any impact? Where is this going to go?

Mike Smithson