But what do we think of her tips on the deputy race? Over the weekend a site regular brought to my attention Jackie Ashley’s column in the Guardian last Friday when she attempted to look at the Labour deputy race from the punters’ point of view. We were told that Hilary Benn was the bookies favourite; John Cruddas had at one stage been at 150/1 but the price had tightened sharply while Harriet Harman was, in Jackie’s own words “worth…
Can the Lib Dems undermine Tory ambitions? At the height of the Tory grammar row a week or so ago Francis Elliot in the Times carried a report about some leaked secret Conservative party research that might be a pointer to the next general election. For the research underlined that the party that represents the biggest threat to the Cameron project is not UKIP or another faction on the right but the Liberal Democrats. The survey also showed a disconnect…
Will this be the first row of the Gord-Dave era? Reproduced above is the start of the main political story in today’s Observer and looks set to be the first Labour-Tory battle ground for Brown’s arrival at Number 10. With both new leaders jostling to assert themselves this could be very dangerous territory. For, according to the report, one of the big ideas outlined from Brown last weekend was part of a package of suggestions put by the Tories in…
Is this a boost for Harman and Hain or not? The above is from the detail of this month’s Populus poll which wasn’t given much attention when it came out. It shows what happened when Populus showed pictures of the six contenders for the Deputy Leadership to 1,006 randomly selected members of the public in a poll. My concern here is not whether Harman is marginally better known than the rest but what is says about public interest in the…
Boost for Palmer as Labour get 0.4% swing in Broxtowe It’s not going to be possible for Sean’s normal Friday slot to go up today but we could not let the day go by without recording formally the results from last night’s council by elections including a swing to Labour in Broxtowe – where PB’s Nick Palmer is the MP. These were by election results:- Broxtowe Borough – Beeston Central (two seats): Lab 728, 677, C 498, 481, Lib Dem…
Will humour be the king when they come face to face? Probably the most eagerly awaited political encounter for years will take place at 12 noon on July 4th when the new Labour leader, Gordon Brown, will face David Cameron at Prime Minister’s Questions for the first time. The format will be familiar – the opposition leader gets a maximum of six questions which he can use when he wants but the Prime Minister always has the last word. How…
Should gamblers be betting on Labour moving back into the lead? On November 22nd 2005, just two weeks before David Cameron was crowned as Tory leader Mori was showing Labour with a 42%-32% lead over the Tories. On December 12th, less than a week after the Tory leadership election result, the pollster had a CON-LAB split of 40%-31%. So Cameron’s Mori “bounce” was a staggering 19%. If the arrival of Gordon as leader and Prime Minister was to have the…
Why doesn’t the media quote betting exchange prices? This piece which went up on the Guardian website an hour or so a go is a typical example of lazy and misleading coverage of political betting. It’s almost become a cliche now to cover a story by looking at the betting odds – but what betting odds? For if the paper had looked at the dynamic betting round-the-clock exchange prices where punters themselves trade with each other a different picture emerges….