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Month: June 2007

Where are the votes in Brown’s Lib Dem job offers?

Where are the votes in Brown’s Lib Dem job offers?

Isn’t he winning the battle for Ming’s supporters anyway? The above chart shows how declared Lib Dem supporters in the regular monthly YouGov polls have responded to the pollster’s forced choice question of whether they would prefer a Cameron-led Tory government or a Brown-led Labour one. This is not asking for voting intention; there is no option to choose the Lib Dems or one of the minor parties; but how the Lib Dem supporters split is regarded as a reasonable…

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Are Labour Past the Worst ? Prior to May’s local elections, I had anticipated that Labour’s projected share of the national vote would fall below 25%, and that they would clearly finish behind the Liberal Democrats. I had thought that the Liberal Democrats (and some minor parties) would make considerable gains at Labour’s expense. These were reasonable assumptions, given that Labour’s local by-election record in the months leading up to the local elections had been dreadful, the Party’s poll ratings…

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Should Gord have offered Paddy the Foreign Office?

Should Gord have offered Paddy the Foreign Office?

Was Brown being serious or just playing politics? Perhaps the element that shows the level of seriousness that Brown attached to his desire to create “a Government of all the talents” is the job that was actually offered to Paddy Ashdown – Northern Ireland secretary. Important? Yes – but not as big a job as it was now the power sharing government at Stormont is operating properly. Surely given Ashdown’s former role as the international community’s High Representative for Bosnia…

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Is Johnson the certainty that the betting suggests?

Is Johnson the certainty that the betting suggests?

But is there still value in a Harriet Harman bet? If punters have got this right then the Education secretary, Alan Johnson, looks pretty certain to pick up the Labour deputy leader crown when the results are announced this weekend. Our chart, showing prices reflected as implied probabilities, indicates the big swing that there’s been in the past few days. But surprisingly betting has been very light. Only £74,000 has been matched on the Betfair market reflecting the lack of…

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Is being on the right side of the polls enough?

Is being on the right side of the polls enough?

Can Brown be liberal and illiberal at the same time? At the recent British Polling Council conference I got into a debate with a Labour party official about being mis-led by polling findings and that the only thing that mattered was the electoral impact. Thus pursuing a policy that was broadly supported was not necessarily the right thing to do. He quoted the national ID card issue which poll after poll has shown has broad public support and on which…

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Could Ming be Gordon’s first victim?

Could Ming be Gordon’s first victim?

But would a new leader pose a bigger threat to Brown’s ambitions? With the change-over in the Tory leadership being the catalyst for the January 2006 departure of the last Lib Dem leader, Charles Kennedy, could the arrival of a new Labour leader have the same effect on Ming? For the reverberations from Monday’s offer to Ming of ministerial places for Lib Dems are continuing to dominate the political headlines and any change in the line-up of party leaders can…

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The PBC Labour Deputy Leader Competition

The PBC Labour Deputy Leader Competition

Part 1 For each of the six candidates, predict their overall percentage share of the first preference votes to one decimal place (ie for all three sections of the electoral college combined – do not make a prediction for the three individual components). To assist in running the competition, please make your predictions in the following order: • Hilary Benn • Hazel Blears • John Cruddas • Peter Hain • Harriet Harman • Alan Johnson Part 2 Select one candidate…

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Was Paddy Ashdown behind the Guardian story?

Was Paddy Ashdown behind the Guardian story?

Could the ex-LD leader be being courted by Gordon? After a morning of denials, rumours, claim and counter-claims there is a suggestion that the person behind the Guardian story is the former leader, Paddy Ashdown, who was involved in the 1997 linkage between the Lib Dems and Labour. According to the blog by the Daily Mail’s Ben Brogan “Westminster rumour has it that it came from a briefing by Lord Ashdown to Alan Rusbridger, the Guardian editor, which explains the…

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