Why I’m continuing to keep my money on Gordon

For me the most satisfactory form of general election betting is to buy and sell the number of Commons seats on the spread betting markets. Here the projected seat numbers at the next general election are traded like stocks and shares and you don’t have to wait until the election takes place before you can pocket any winnings.

Until now the only Commons spread market that is operating is the above one from Cantor Spreadfair though I’m expecting the other big firms, IG Index and Sporting Index to come in once Gordon Brown has taken over at Number 10.

For those unfamiliar with this form of betting let me explain by taking you through my transactions on Labour since March. Then I figured that sentiment about the party would fall after the projected drubbing in the May elections and I “sold” Labour for the general election at 277 seats. This meant that if the total of seats eventually won was less than 277 I would win the difference multiplied by my stake amount. If Labour got more than that number then I would lose according to a similar calculation.

By the third week in May the market had indeed moved in my direction and I reversed my position by buying enough 271.2 seats to close down the original bet and to be in a net positive position on Labour increasing beyond that. Since then I have watched as the price has edged upwards.

The first milestone was when the “sell” price – the lower figure in the spread – exceeded my purchase level. Today that stands at 276 seats so I could again take my profit but I’m not going to. Because I have got a credit account I have not had to stump up a penny to cover these transactions.

My approach is to bet in the short and medium term and not wait until the election itself. So I am watching closely how the Gordon Brown arrival is being reported in the media with the intention of getting out of this bet when the spread price is at its highest.

Unless there is a series of seriously bad polls the market sentiment is with Gordon and that’s where my money will stay – at least for the time being.

There must be a distinct possibility that at least one of the main polls will have Labour back in the lead in July and that should boost even further the Labour spread. What happens after that I have no idea. My immediate target is to close down my position at the most profitable moment.

POLITICALBETTING RECORDED WAGERS. One more bet has gone on the list and I am planning to run a thread in the next few days where people can put forward propositions in the hope that others might take them up on it. Only those agreed bets notified to me in writing will go on the recorded list. Also note – gambling debts are NOT legally enforceable so you enter into this entirely at your own risk.

Mike Smithson