Browsed by
Month: May 2007

Can anybody stop the Benn bandwagon?

Can anybody stop the Benn bandwagon?

Is Johnson suffering over his public school teacher comments? The deputy leadership candidate who had the most trouble getting the necessary 45 nominations to get on the ballot, Hilary Benn, is continuing to attract the money on the Betfair market and now stands at his tightest price yet – 1.32/1. As the chart shows there has been a big turnaround in the past week with interest moving away from the Education Secretary, Alan Johnson, who chalked up the biggest slate…

Read More Read More

Is a Tory “love-bomber” coming to a Lib Dem near you?

Is a Tory “love-bomber” coming to a Lib Dem near you?

What do we think of Cameron-Osborne’s latest wheeze? Perhaps the most interesting political piece in an otherwise boring lot of Sunday papers is an article by Melissa Kite in the Sunday Telegraph in which she quotes from a secret campaign report prepared for the Tory leadership on the May 3rd outcome. The document concludes “…. that a strategy of not campaigning negatively against the Liberal Democrats, but rather appearing to agree with them on key issues, has been vindicated. The…

Read More Read More

Could YouGov’s approach be understating the Brown bounce?

Could YouGov’s approach be understating the Brown bounce?

What happens if you don’t measure “likelihood to vote”? One of the most important questions asked by four the five pollsters that regularly carry out national voting intention surveys in the UK – ICM, Populus, Ipsos-Mori and Communicate Research – is how likely it is that respondents will actually vote. Those surveyed are asked to rate, usually on a scale of 1-10, how likely it is that they will turn out and these answers play a huge part in determining…

Read More Read More

Will it be five times in a row for John Howard?

Will it be five times in a row for John Howard?

Guest slot on the Australian election by Steven Phelps The next General Election in Australia is likely to be held in October this year. The last one having been held in October 2004 the latest possible date for the next one is 19th January 2008, but commentators are predicting 20th October 2007, and that’s only five months from now. The incumbent Prime Minister is John Howard. As leader of the Liberal Party, he heads the Liberal Party / National Party…

Read More Read More

Boost for Cameron as the Tories move to 39% with YouGov

Boost for Cameron as the Tories move to 39% with YouGov

But Brown gets within 3% on the pollster’s forced choice question Regular visitors here will know that it has long been a pet theory of mine that what drives Tory ratings in the opinion polls is the amount of publicity, good or bad, that the leader, David Cameron, is getting. If he’s out of the headlines and bulletins then his party slips – if not his party moves forward. Thus after a week where the main political story has been…

Read More Read More

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Be Careful What You Ask For One old chestnut that comes up from time to time is that the Conservatives have only won the majority of elections since 1918 because the “progressive consensus” is divided between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Hence, if only proportional representation were introduced in British elections, Labour and the Liberal Democrats could form a more or less permanent administration. It would appear that former Lib Dem Leader, Paddy Ashdown, was convinced that Tony Blair would…

Read More Read More

Has Cameron been following a “Yes Minister” strategy?

Has Cameron been following a “Yes Minister” strategy?

Was the schools row created to keep Gordon off the front pages? Perhaps the most extraordinary feature of this week’s news – Gordon’s first as leader-elect – has been how little coverage there’s been of him and the Labour deputy leadership contest. For the big political story has been about Tory policy on grammar schools and the battles that Cameron has been having with his old guard. Hasn’t the timing of this been a bit too convenient? Could all this…

Read More Read More

Could your “winning” deputy bet be a loser?

Could your “winning” deputy bet be a loser?

Is your wager on deputy PM – not deputy leader? A couple of people have emailed to point out that the earlier version of William Hill’s deputy market was not on who would be deputy leader, but who would become deputy prime minister. At the time, nearly a year ago, the two roles were seen as being almost synonymous and they had not really checked the details. But things could change dramatically following the strong reports today that Brown is…

Read More Read More