Will “Gordon Brown for Britain” go down well with the voters?

This is Betfair’s election outcome market and shows how punters have been fairly consistent in their view over the past year that we are heading for a hung parliament. The only change has been the move by the Tories into the second place position.

The events of this week have yet to have a significant impact. What is likely to cause a change is the first batch of polls which we might see in tomorrow’s papers.

Certainly after the wall-to-wall coverage of the past couple of days you would expect to see some movement.

Will the lack of glitz and the focus on a more sober approach to politics resonate with the public mood in the post-Blair era? Possibly but for how long can this be sustained?

It’s worth reminding ourselves that Labour does not need much of an improvement to get into a general election winning position. Even if it secured less votes overall than the Tories Gordon Brown could be home and dry with a majority government.

Like I did with David Cameron I am going to wait, perhaps six months, before coming to a firm conclusion on the impact of the leadership change. We really need to get the summer out of the way and then the party conferences before we can assess the real impact.

My money in this market is still on a hung parliament which remains the most probable outcome as long as the Tories stay in the upper 30s in the opinion polls.

Mike Smithson