YouGov finds 9% support for the party in the Scotland elections

An extraordinary poll next Thursday’s Scottish elections by YouGov for the Daily Telegraph shows a big surge for the Greens suggesting that they might provide the biggest sensation in next Thursday’s election – and maybe not just north of the border.

In the list vote where people express a preference for a party for the “top-up” seats YouGov found with changes on last week: SNP 31% (-4): LAB 27% (-1): CON 13% (nc): LD 11% (-2): GRN 9% (+5): OTH 10%(+3).

In the constituency vote where the Greens are not standing the shares are: SNP 39% (+2): LAB 30% (nc): CON 13% (-1): LD 15% (nc): OTH 4% (nc)

Given YouGov’s record in Scottish elections (they were by far the most accurate pollster last time) today’s figures add further weight to the evidence that the SNP is going to end up as top party in the Scottish parliament next week.

The “funny” polls that have been appearing from firms that are not listed as members of the British Polling Council and don’t following the industry standard transparency rules should be ignored.

So what are we to make of the big surge for the Greens? An explanation might be that there’s been a change in YouGov’s approach to the smaller parties. The following is from Peter Kellner – the boss of the firm:-

He says that in previous Scottish polls “..those people who responded ‘some other party’ were then taken to a list of smaller parties, such as the Greens and Solidarity, and asked which they would vote for.In this week’s poll, we presented the full list of parties together – starting with the four larger parties, and then the four significant smaller parties: Greens, Scottish Socialist Party, Solidarity, Senior Citizens Unity Party..It may well be that the apparent rise since last week in support for the Greens is largely the result of this change in our methods. If so, it is consistent with past polling experience: that if respondents are reminded of the names of smaller parties when they are asked how they will vote, support for those parties is generally higher than if they are not named.”

This sounds spot on and I very much welcome the change in YouGov’s approach.

The big support for the Greens begs the question of whether there maybe similar increases in party support in Wales and in some English local elections next week. My guess is that there will.

In the Scottish election betting the 0.44/1 of the SNP to win most seats looks even more tempting this morning. Take almost everything you can.

Mike Smithson