ICM and YouGov report on the damage of the pension row

Two polls by YouGov and ICM that will appear tomorrow in Rupert Murdoch’s Sunday papers, the News of the World and the Sunday Times show the damage to Gordon Brown’s reputation that the row over the 1997 pension changes has caused.

Reports of what’s in the papers are just emerging but these seem to be the main highlights:-

GB “Good or bad chancellor?” 52% of those surveyed by YouGov said “bad” against 41% who said “good. The figures are almost the reverse of that the pollster found a month ago.

GB “fit to be Prime minister?”27% in the the YouGov sample said yes against 57% who said he was not.

GB “A better PM than Tony Blair?” Just 11% of YouGov’s respondents said yes against 38% who thought he would be worse.

GB “responsible for the shortfall in pension funds?” ICM found 57% saying yes. Amongst over 55s the proportion rises to 69%.

The YouGov poll is the only one that appears to carry a voting intention question. These are the shares compared with the last one by the pollster: CON 39% (nc): LAB 31% (-1): LD 16% (-1).

When the “named leader” question was put with Brown, Cameron and Campbell mentioned the response was CON 40%: LAB 30%: LD 14%.

A second “named leader question was put but with Tony Blair substituted for Brown. This resulted in the following CON 39%: LAB 32%: LD 15%. So Labour would be doing sworse with Brown as leader but slightly better on the main voting intention question with Blair still in place.

But there’s some consolation for Brown in questions on who should replace Tony. He came top at 22% over David Miliband on 16%. More interestingly the Chancellor is still the overwhelming favourite of Labour supporters beating Miliband by 55% to 12%. Lib Dem supporters, though, chose Brown over Miliband by 19% to 18%.

On the Labour leadership betting markets the Brown price has tightened to 0.23/1.

Mike Smithson