Is this how gains-losses board will look on May 4th?

I’ve already started trying to find betting opportunities for one contest that takes place on May 3rd – the race for the mayor of Bedford where I live. Hopefully local bookies will once again be quoting prices because it looks like an interesting battle of big personalities.

Last time the boss of a local newspaper group won as an independent on a very low turnout in a standalone election. The Lib Dems came in second with Labour, which holds the main parliamentary seat, pushed into 4th place. This time a full slate of local seats will be up, all the party machines will be working full stretch. Will voters stick with their party allegiances in the mayoral vote and will a much bigger turnout have an impact?

David Boothroyd – a psephologist from the Indigo Public Affairs firm lists this as “no change” in his predictions which are summarised above. His firm did the same last year in the London Borough and claimed a 69% success rate.

Is Boothroyd letting his Labour sympathies show through with his predictions – and will May 3rd see many more councils changing hands?

Certainly the Tories will be disappointed if their “scalps” on the night are not more extensive than those listed on the chart.

For his predictions he has made a detailed study of every one of the councils where elections will be held and has gone public with his list. He plans to issue revisions in the run up to polling day. Nine years ago Boothroyd started the website, http://www.election.demon.co.uk which has been linked to from PBC since we started. Boothroyd is a Labour councillor on Westminster City Council.

UPDATE: David Boothroyd has asked me to point out that these are not his predictions but those of Indigo Public Affairs

Mike Smithson