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Baxter or Wells – which is best for Commons seat predictions? Firstly it should be recognised that there is no fail-safe way of tapping some numbers into a computer which will then give you a relatively accurate prediction how many MPs the parties would get for those vote shares. The two most widely available online calculators employ very different mathematical approaches and can in certain instances come out with very different seat numbers. There is one from Martin Baxter (left),…

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Could Blair announce his resignation to take place six weeks later? There’s been a lot of interest amongst Blair departure date punters about what the “officially ceasing to be Labour Leader” actually means. This is the term that Betfair use in their market rules and punters who watched what how the betting exchange dealt the US mid-term results are naturally nervous. Peter Riddell had some interesting thoughts in the Times on how this would work which to me sound quite…

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The above table shows how entrants to the PBC Political Forecaster of the Year responded to the first series of questions on who is going to be in each of the stated posts on Christmas Day 2007. Thanks to Paul Maggs for doing a brilliant job pulling all the PBC Political Forecaster of the Year entries together. This looks great although there seem to be few surprises. I thought that Ming Campbell would do worse than the two-thirds projects though…

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The Coming Year Throughout 2007, the Conservatives have held a small, but steady, opinion poll lead over Labour, for the first time since 1992. The Liberal Democrats have faltered in opinion polls (although have had two outstanding by-elections), and the minor parties have achieved record levels of support (16% according to the latest Yougov poll). Local elections have proved somewhat different. In these, the Conservatives have established a big lead over Labour (13% in May, and 15% in by-elections since…

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Regular users of the site will know that one of PBC’s most prolific and knowledgeable contributors who has enriched our discussions for nearly two years, Jack W, has been ill. I am please to report that this message was posted this morning. To all Political Betting friends of Jack W. Dad has asked me to pass on his very grateful thanks for all the messages of support he has received over the past three weeks. My father remains very poorly…

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Betfair figures on their biggest political markets The betting exchange, Betfair, has just sent me some information on their top poloitical markets and, perhaps surprisingly, the most activity during 2006 was on the Italian election when Romano Prodi beat Silvano Berlusconi by the narrowest of margins. The total amount traded on the exchange on this election was £1,790,547. In second place was the election for the Liberal Democrat leadership which saw £1,000,382 being traded. All this is small beer compared…

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