Is 0.2/1 a value price on the Chancellor?

There’s been a bit of a flurry in the blogsphere today over the Chancellor’s last minute decision to be flying to India just as bad inflation figures are published and even though the trip means he cannot make an event he was due to host tonight celebrating 300 years of the union with Scotland.

However the move might exasperate his opponents you have to concede that it shows what a sharp political operator Brown is underlining that he’s going to be very tough to beat for the leadership.

For Gordon has a long record of being out of the way when there is bad news about. Smart.

It is hard to credit it now but only three months ago you could have got 0.56/1 on Gordon Brown become next leader of the Labour party. So a £100 gamble would produce profits of £56 – a price which we said was great value and many PBC visitors took advantage.

Since then as we have got closer to Blair’s departure the price has tightened and tightened so last Wednesday a £100 bet would have seen a return of just £17 – less than a third of what it was in October.

But in the past couple of days the wind seems to have gone out of the Chancellor’s sails and the latest price is 0.2/1. So our notional £100 bet would produce profits of £20.

So is now the time to bet? I think so. This price level is not going to last.

Mike Smithson