How September’s 125/1 shot is making the running The long holiday weekend and for all but one of the declared candidates in Labour’s deputy race a chance to relax with their families or to get away from the political process. For John Cruddas, however, this was the ideal time to maximise the headlines on what is always a very slow news period. So his warning about Labour’s membership declining at 27,000 a year made it onto most of the bulletins…
PBC’s first ever poster and David R get the prizes The first person ever to post a comment on PBC, Tim Hill (AKA Big Tall Tim) and David R are the winners of our two outstanding competitions – on the US Mid Terms and the “2006 Prediction Contest“. Tim, whose first post from March 29th 2004 is reproduced above, is a close friend and is a former PPC and Councillor for the Lib Dems in Bedfordshire. These were the top…
Happy Christmas to everybody? A new report from Alexa, the Amazon off-shoot that monitors internet traffic world-wide, places Politicalbetting.com as the sixth most visited news and media politics site in the UK ahead of even the sites of those well established political journals the New Statesman and the Spectator. YouGov is up there at number two because of all the traffic generated by its online polling. In the past week users filling in surveys have given it a page view…
Ming’s party at lowest point since the Mark Oaten revelations A new YouGov poll in the Sunday Times this morning has the Lib Dems down at their lowest point with the internet pollster since the Mark Oaten crisis during the leadership contest earlier in the year. The shares are compared with the Telegraph YouGov poll reported on Friday are – CON 37% (nc): LAB 32% (-1): LD 15% (-2). This decline is in line with the trend from other polls….
Should Gordon be worried about the eulogies to Blair Tucked away in the detail of yesterday’s YouGov poll were the responses to the question “Who would make the best Prime Minister”? When the options were Blair, Cameron and Campbell 79% of Labour voters said Tony with just one per cent naming Cameron But when the same question was asked with Gordon Brown substituted for Tony Blair the proportion of Labour voters going for Brown dropped to 71% with 6% naming…
But it’s 45-32 on the Cameron-Brown forced choice This month’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph shows very little movement on a month ago. These are the shares – CON 37% (nc): LAB 33% (+1): LD 17% (+1). So the overall Tory lead is down a point with Labour and the Lib Dems both putting on a point. But the named leader measure that YouGov uses – a forced choice asking “would you prefer to see after the next election,…
Why is less importance attached to the view of Labour voters? Detailed data from the December ICM and Populus polls shows that the reported shares followed the biggest scaling back of the views of those who said they voted Labour last time since the last election. If this process had not happened then, in spite of all the recent troubles, Blair-Brown’s party would have probably had poll leads. For in each of the two polls that we have had in…
Is the “Climate Change” debate giving him the opportunity to shine? The Labour leadership has appeared such a certainty for so long that we have barely discussed the “events dear boy – events” scenario of who would be in contention if something untoward happened to Gordon Brown or his campaign. And there’s one figure who has started to pick up support again – David Miliband the young Environment Secretary. As the chart showing best betting prices illustrates there has been…