How good were you at predicting the past 12 months?

Less than a fortnight to go and barring anything dramatic like a Tony Blair resignation the only issue still to be resolved in our “Predicting 2006” competition is the December ICM poll which should come out in the next day or so.

Looking back on the entries that were posted here almost a year ago it is amazing how positive people were about the prospects for Charles Kennedy who actually resigned only six days into the New Year. Quite a large number thought he would survive. As to who would replace him getting on for a fifth of the entries named Mark Oaten. Remember him now?

So how did you do? These are the questions and the probable outcomes. The winner will receive a copy of my new book on betting and politics that’s due to be published by Harriman House in the late spring.

The 2006 Questions and likely answers.

1. For how many weeks of 2006 will Tony Blair continue to be Labour leader? One hundred points for a correct answer losing ten points for each complete week out. LIKELY CORRECT ANSWER 52

2. For how many weeks of 2006 will Charles Kennedy continue to be Lib Dem leader? Fifty points for a correct answer losing five points for each complete week out. CORRECT ANSWER 0. (Kennedy resigned on January 6th without completing one week)

3. Who will be Labour leader on Christmas Day 2006? One hundred points for a correct answer. LIKELY CORRECT ANSWER Tony Blair

4. Who will be Lib Dem leader on Christmas Day 2006? Fifty points for a correct answer. LIKELY CORRECT ANSWER Sir Menzies Campbell

5. According to the BBC website on the Sunday after the May local elections what will be Labour’s net losses or gains of council seats? Indicate plus or minus. One hundred points for a correct answer losing one point for each three seats out. CORRECT ANSWER -319 seats

6. According to the BBC website on the Sunday after the May local elections what will be the Liberal Democrats’ net losses or gains of council seats? Indicate plus or minus. One hundred points for a correct answer losing one point for each three seats out. CORRECT ANSWER 2 seats

7. What will be Cameron’s Conservatives’ best position in relation to Labour in a Guardian ICM poll during 2006? Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out. LIKELY CORRECT ANSWER 10%

8. What will be the Lib Dems’ best share in a Guardian ICM poll during 2006? Thirty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out. LIKELY CORRECT ANSWER 24%

9. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the February 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out. CORRECT ANSWER 3%

10. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the June 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out. CORRECT ANSWER 5%

11. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the September 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out. CORRECT ANSWER 4%

12. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the December 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out. LIKELY CORRECT ANSWER – we should know this week.


Mike Smithson