How dangerous are things for the PM and his aides?

Last July I put £50 on at 6/1 that Tony Blair would be arrested before the end of the year. It seemed worth a punt and the price though not generous appeared just about fair.

Now things are moving quickly with threats of resignation said in to be in the air from the DPP if there is political interference with the process.

It’s clear from the leaks that have been coming out in recent days that the police think they might have something and the extraordinary comments at the weekend by the Attorney-General, Lord Goldsmith, have only added to the speculation.

The other possible betting market that could be affected is the date of Blair’s departure. Q4 2006 is now out to 33/1 while Q1 2007 is at 4.3/1.

Mike Smithson