Will there be a double blow for Bush in Washington?

With most pundits and polls suggesting that the Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives in the US Mid Terms on Tuesday attention is focussing on the Senate where latest polls indicate that it is getting very close.

According to Electoral-Vote.com both the Democrats and the Republicans are set to get 49 seats in the Senate with two states, Missouri and Virginia, currently tied.

The betting markets are still giving this to the Republicans – Betfair is showing a price of 0.53/1 on the Republicans hanging on although this price is easing.

There were suggestions on Newsnight last night that the Republican drive on Tuesday might be hampered by gay prostitute allegations against one of America’s leading TV evangelists, Jimmy Haggard.

The Electoral-Vote prediction for the House of Representatives is DEM 241 – REP 193 and now the best you can get on Betfair is 0.14/1 on the Democrats winning control.

All these projections are based on polling and I am very mindful of what happened two years ago in the White House Race. The exit polls had it going for Kerry and there was an enormous rush to bet on the Democrat.

On that night I had thousands of pounds on a Kerry victory but decided to play safe at about 11.45pm GMT and laid enough of my betting to cover myself when Kerry was down at 0.4/1. Throughout that campaign I had certainly allowed wishful thinking to affect my gambling. Thankfully I was able to get out unscathed.

According to ABC News this week John Kerry is said to be still affected by going to bed on that night believing that he had won and then waking up in the morning to find that he hadn’t.

The Republicans are a formidable election machine. Be careful when you bet against them.

Mid-terms Prize Competition. Paul Maggs is running a prediction competition which I’ll be publishing later today.

Mike Smithson