..and Brown trails 11% on “who would be best PM” In the first public poll after the conference season ICM in the Sunday Telegraph is reporting a big increase in the Tory lead and some poor figures for the Chancellor over “who would make the best Prime Minister”. The shares with comparisons on the last ICM poll a week ago are CON 38% (+2): LAB 32% (-3): LD 20%(+1). This is the second biggest lead that the pollster has had…
Will the Republicans be able to hang on? With just three and a half weeks to go the betting exchange, Betfair, has now opened a range of markets on what will surely be the most important elections in the world during 2006 – the mid terms. Currently, the Republicans run both houses of Congress, but the outcome in November 2006 seems in doubt given the unpopularity both of President Bush and Congress. If the Democrats win one or both houses,…
Will the market moves be reflected in post conference polls? The latest best price on Labour winning most seats at the next General Election has now eased to 6/4. The online bookmaker offering the odds, Corals, has also tightened the Tories to 1/2. So a winning £100 bet on Labour would produce a £150 profit while a Tory backer making a similar sized bet could only look forward to winnings of just £50. For the potential wininngs on the Tories…
How the Parties Are Performing? None of the three main parties can take that much comfort from their performance in local by-elections since the start of July. In all contests during that period, the Conservatives have made a net loss of 1 seat, Labour are unchanged, the Liberal Democrats have made a net gain of 6, Scottish and Welsh nationalists have made a net gain of 2, and Others have made a net loss of 7. There have been a…
In July we launched a competition on what Cameron would do in his speech to follow “hug a hoodie”. We asked what’s going to be next? Clearly it had to be something that was so distant from what you would expect to hear from a Tory leader that it will, at first, appear totally shocking. We’ve had three or four entrants making claims but I’ve decided to award the prize to David Herdson. His entry posted on July 23rrd was:-…
Why can’t we bet on Labour’s other battle? The overnight headlines following Jack Straw’s comments about Muslim women wearing the veil has fueled further speculation about the Deputy Leadership chances of the former Foreign Secretary and leader of the House, Jack Straw. Were his comments, which he must have realised would attract the big headlines, part of his plan to raise his profile ahead of next year’s election to choose John Prescott’s succession? He’s quoted as saying that before going…
Does this mean that the change-over is being put back until July? The above illustrations were taken from the Labour party website which even this afternoon was still promoting the 2007 Spring Party Conference to prospective delegates and corporate sponsors. This is the second biggest event in the party’s annual calender and preparations seem to have been well advanced. The plan, potential corporate sponsors were being told, was “to incorporate Local Government, women and youth conferences, providing you the opportunity…
With maybe three years to go the Commons majority markets open So we’ve ended conference season and we’ve now got a clearer idea about how all three main parties will tackle the coming months. But what’s this all going to mean in General Election terms? Do we have any greater feeling about the outcome? The challenge is that nobody has any real idea how a Brown-led Labour is going to go down with the voters. Will his changed status as…