Is the Home Secretary worth his 2nd favourite status?

The increased prominence that John Reid is getting as a result of his handling of the terror plot has caused his price on the Betfair betting exchange to tighten sharply. He started the day at about 13/1 and as of 2030 the last recorded trade on Betfair was at 4/1. The price has eased a touch since then but Reid is now the firm second favourite behind Gordon Brown to succeed Tony Blair.

In one sense he has been lucky – the Prime Minister is on holiday and Reid has been able to play a major public role where his calm self-assured manner seems to fit the public mood. I liked the way he emphasised how he’s consulted Ming Campbell and David Cameron.

Whether his betting position will be sustained I don’t know but he has looked and sounded good and that might hold him in a good light whenever the election is held. I am particularly impressed by his voice which is very clear and attractive.

Last Saturday I announced that I was giving up political betting because of the potential conflict of interest in running the site. The overwhelming message I got back was that such a move could take away what many see as the essence of the site – it’s link to betting.

Today I found the prospect of putting money on Reid at prices greater than 10/1 irresistible. I also reduced some of my position on Alan Johnson – though I currently stand to make twice as much on him than the Home Secretary.

I will continue to report my major bets on the site so people can make up their own mind.

Mike Smithson