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Month: July 2006

What do we make of Newsnight’s Kennedy v Ming poll?

What do we make of Newsnight’s Kennedy v Ming poll?

Do “budget” non-voting intention surveys tell us anything? So far we haven’t covered the ICM poll findings that were presented to Ming Campbell in a 25 minute feature on Newsnight on Wednesday evening. The most cruel figures from the new leader’s point of view was a comparison with his predecessor, Charles Kennedy. By 53-26 those surveyed preferred the old leader to the new. Comparing which of the three presumed party leaders at the next election “had the qualities needed to…

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You can get 6/1 that Blair will be arrested this year

You can get 6/1 that Blair will be arrested this year

William Hill report huge interest in new market Following our call this morning for a betting market on whether leading figures will be arrested William Hill now have a market up. They opened with a price of 10/1 that the Prime Minister would be arrested in 2006 but this has been tightened after big punter interest. I think that this is worth a punt. Mike Smithson

Has “hug-a-hoodie” caused the Cameron bubble to burst?

Has “hug-a-hoodie” caused the Cameron bubble to burst?

Dave down, Ming up in YouGov’s latest tracker poll The above chart is from the latest report by Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report showing the results of the YouGov daily tracker on perceptions of leading politicians. It is all part of data in the firm’s Brand Index survey which involves questioning, online, 2,000 people everyday. Just after the local elections Cameron had a positive rating of 28%. Today’s report shows that has dipped to 12% and is now below…

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Can we believe Campbell on Blair’s departure?

Can we believe Campbell on Blair’s departure?

Does the ex-PR boss KNOW that Blair will be out in September 2007? This week’s Spectator, out this morning, is carrying a report about a chance conversation between the ex-editor and now shadow minister, Boris Johnson and Alistair Campbell which seems to confirm that Tony Blair will step down at the 2007 party conference. The political column notes “At a coffee stall inside Lord’s cricket ground on Monday, two customers bumped into each other with a start. Alastair Campbell and…

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How to avoid Lib Dem by election batterings

How to avoid Lib Dem by election batterings

What Labour and the Tories could do to defend themselves Anybody with any doubt about the power of the Lib Dem by-election machine should check out the excellent “British Parliamentary By Elections Since 1945” site where election literature from almost every campaign has been collected and is available to view on line. Quite simply the party is so far ahead in finding vote-switching messages and creating effective vehicles to communicate them that virtually every Tory and Labour seat in the…

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The reason I might be wrong about Labour and Gordon

The reason I might be wrong about Labour and Gordon

The last time a party elected a leader in the face of the polls In August 2001 ICM carried out a poll to test the reactions of ordinary voters to the two remaining candidates in that year’s Tory leadership contest – Iain Duncan Smith and Ken Clarke. It will be recalled that these two had got to the final short-list after Michael Portillo had been squeezed out in the Tory MP part of the selection process. When asked to compare…

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Bad news for Ming and Gordon in the South West

Bad news for Ming and Gordon in the South West

Do Scottish leaders go down badly in England? In what must be the first survey of its kind confined to one specific English region there’s striking news tonight of the different reactions voters have to the two Scottish party leaders and the English Tory one. The survey from Marketing Means was carried out last week and involved contacting 1,008 people. The vote shares found were with changes on the General Election CON 41 (+3): LAB 22 (-1): LD 30 (-3)…..

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Why I’m betting on Frank Luntz – not Martin Baxter

Why I’m betting on Frank Luntz – not Martin Baxter

Time to make a call on the next General Election Over the weekend the city mathematician who runs Electoral Calculus, Martin Baxter (right), produced another of his General Election predictions based on his “poll of polls” and applying the swing to each Westminster seat. His figures with the Tories 3.37% ahead produced a projected House of Commons of CON 267: LAB 311: LD 36 seats. So Labour would be just 13 short of an overall majority. The Tories, in spite…

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