“Labour by 1% in BG but heading for 4th place in Bromley”

Following the close of the PB.C by-election competition, the contest for the Westminster seat at Blaenau Gwent looks to be neck-and-neck.

By averaging out all the entries received we are able to state what the overall view of all those who took part is and it will be interesting to see if their collective wisdom is accurate. These are the figures.

Blaenau Gwent – Westminster: LAB 42.7: IND 41.6: LD 5.9: PC 5.13: CON 4.3

Blaenau Gwent – Cardiff: LAB 37.9: IND 47.6: LD 5.4: PC 4.9: CON 3.8

Bromley & Chislehurst: CON 51.2: LD 26.9: UKIP 10.4: LAB 8.9

So in the closest contest, to replace the late Peter Laws at Westminster, Labour are predicted to receive 42.7% of the vote, with independent candidate Dai Davies just behind on 41.6%. 45 entries predicted a Labour win while 36 plumped for Davies.

In the Welsh Assembly by-election his widow, Trish Law, is predicted to win fairly comfortably, and leads Labour by 47.6% to 37.9% on the average scores, and only five entries predicted Labour to win. In both the Blaenau Gwent elections, the other parties are well down into single figures.

Meanwhile in Bromley & Chislehurst, the Conservatives are predicted to romp home with an average prediction of 51.2%, well ahead of the Lib Dems on 26.9% – all but one entry fore-casted a win for the Conservatives.

If the PB.C predictions are right, then Labour are in for an embarassing night being forced into fourth place.

The betting markets on all three election have proved to be a flop attracting very little interest. The two biggest interests – the size of the Tory share in Bromley and whether Labour will be pushed into fourth place have not been part of any betting market.

There’s been very little serious intent behind the betting on the Lib Dems and very few takers on the Tories where the 0.13/1 appears like free money.

Mike Smithson & Paul Maggs (“Double Carpet”)