Could new poll put further pressure on Ming?

The May YouGov poll in the Telegraph has the following shares with comparisons on the last survey by the pollster two weeks ago CON 38 (+1): LAB 32 (+1): LD 16 (-1).

So all the main pollsters with the regular monthly newspapers slots – YouGov, Populus and ICM – put Cameron’s Conservatives on the same level of support – 38% – and this is starting to look fairly robust.

But a 38% share is not enough to win a Commons majority and Cameron’s party still has a lot of work to do. The Baxter calculation on these shares leaves the Tories 12 seats short

The figures will be very disappointing for the Lib Dem because all the main pollsters have recorded declines during the month which might reflect the constant stream of stories questioning Ming Campbell’s leadership and performance at Prime Minister’s Questions.

They will take comfort, however, from the fact that only five weeks before their Dunfermline by-election spectacular YouGov had them at 13%. Whether the upcoming Bromley by-election will have the same impact is harder call – because it’s the Tories not Labour who are defending.

Lib Dem campaigners will have hardly been encouraged by Ming’s comments earlier in the week deprecating “any effort to begin electioneering under any circumstances in any by-election until the writ has been moved by the party with responsibility for doing so.” Get real. Politics is a hard tough world and the Lib Dems of old would have starting mapping the campaign within hours of the Eric Forth news.

Campbell’s personal ratings have plummeted with only 8% saying they would like him as Prime Minister. Charles Kennedy was recording 18% to the same question before the May 2005 General Election.

Predicting the next General Election remains a big challenge because we don’t know whether Gordon Brown will succeed Tony Blair or whether the Lib Dems led by someone like David Laws (my favourite) or Nick Clegg could take away votes from the Tories.

Mike Smithson