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Month: March 2006

Surely Labour can get more than £1m for a peerage?

Surely Labour can get more than £1m for a peerage?

How to increase the yield and reduce the political damage In the row over the Labour party’s alleged “cash for honours” scandal nobody has raised the issue of the pricing levels involved. Is Tony Blair “selling” them too cheaply? This post is not about the rights and wrongs of handing out honours in return for large donations but whether the party has got its basic fundraising strategy right. For from the perspective of my day job as a professional big…

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So how’s Cameron doing after 100 days?

So how’s Cameron doing after 100 days?

Progress Yes – but where’s the next 5% going to come from? On Thursday David Cameron completed his first 100 days as Conservative leader and it’s perhaps a good moment to look at how he’s doing and whether his party is any nearer to power. The above chart illustrates the implied probability of which party will win most seats at the next General Election based on best prices on the betting exchanges. It shows a very significant move to the…

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Sean Fear’s local election round-up

Sean Fear’s local election round-up

Our first “guest” contribution by Sean Fear Local by-elections might be thought to be of interest only to political trainspotters. However, they matter because they have, historically, been a very good indicator of the standing of the three parties in local contests. The share of the vote won by each of the three main parties in local elections each May will always be much closer to the vote share won in the preceding few months’ by elections than to the…

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Has George found a chink in Gordon’s armour?

Has George found a chink in Gordon’s armour?

Are the Tories onto something by branding Brown as “unpleasant”? I very much doubt if the following statement will receive universal acclaim on PB.C – but with the single exception of three-times election winner Tony Blair I rate the Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, as the top political strategist in British politics today. He’s very much the brains behind the Cameron team and there can be little doubt that his attack this week on “Brown’s unpleasantness” was pre-meditated and designed to…

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Can the Democrats break-through in the mid-terms?

Can the Democrats break-through in the mid-terms?

With Bush’s ratings plummeting will the Republicans retain control? Probably the most important elections anywhere in the world during 2006 will be the US mid-terms on November 7th when the Republicans will be defending their control of both the House and the Senate. The numbers look straightforward: to win the Senate Democrats have to win six seats, which given the strength of Republican incumbents looks almost out of the question – although the collapse in confidence in recent polls on…

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Should Labour choose its leader the US way?

Should Labour choose its leader the US way?

Michael Meacher blasts the Stephen Byers plan A revolutionary new plan to change the way in which the Labour leader is elected is being proposed by the former minister, Stephen Byers. According to the veteran MP, Michael Meacher in the Guardian this morning Labour’s NEC will discuss a document this month called the Party Renewal Project which, along with other proposals, sets out a revolutionary way of choosing the leader. Instead of the current complex arrangement involving the trade unions,…

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Populus: Brown still 6 points behind Cameron

Populus: Brown still 6 points behind Cameron

But Labour and Tories level pegging on main voting intention The March Populus Poll in the Times has the following top-line voting intention with comparisons on a month ago: CON 35%(-2): LAB 35%(-1): LD 20%(+2). So in terms of lead the Tories and Labour are back to an even position after the Tories were briefly ahead last month. In recent months Populus has been showing Labour doing better against the Tories than the other pollsters with regular monthly slots in…

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PB.C Flashback and other site news

PB.C Flashback and other site news

Introducing PB.C Flashback At the site party in January Mike Killingworth (Innocent Abroad) suggested that the archives should be kept because they give an interesting snapshot of what people were thinking at a particular time. As a result I have taken the thread of May 5-6th last year, General Election night, and produced an edited version of the interaction on the site from 9.30 pm to 1am the following morning. It makes a great read and I’ve put it as…

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