Now just 3.2/1 that he’ll be gone by the end of June

The “honours for loans” crisis in the immediate aftermath of the Education bill rebellion and the Tessa Jowell issues has caused a sharp move on the “When will Blair go?” betting markets.

The above chart shows the implied probability of him leaving Downing Street in the period April-June on the Betfair betting exchange.

For the first time, bookmakers William Hill reckon that Tony Blair is most likely to leave office as Prime Minister this year. They have cut the odds about him going in 2006 from 6/4 to 6/5 and this year has now replaced 2007 – in which he is now 5/4 to go – as favourite for the first time.

Yesterday I was at an event with the Prime Minister in York and it was clear that the events of the past week have started to to take their toll. He looked shattered.

What I’ve noticed, as well, is that people I don’t regard as having a deep interest in politics are now talking about the latest “loans for honours” issue.

But Tony, as I’ve said before, is a great survivor. Will he get out of this one? It might be worth hedging your bets.

At the York event my pedal cycle was treated as a security risk. I had chained it to sign in car park only to find it missing afterwards. Apparently sniffer dogs had checked it out and it had been removed.

Mike Smithson