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Month: February 2006

Could the Lib Dem race still spring a surprise?

Could the Lib Dem race still spring a surprise?

Just two week to go before new leader is elected The chopping and changes in the betting chart above show the extraordinary fluctuations there’ve been in the Lib Dem leadership race from the day after Charles Kennedy announced his resignation just six weeks ago. The chart shows the implied probability of success based on the Betfair betting exchange market. In the first phase the money piled on Ming Campbell after a YouGov members poll on the morning of Kennedy’s resignation…

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How punters were misled over Brown’s poll ratings?

How punters were misled over Brown’s poll ratings?

Another case of media sloppiness when reporting a survey On Sunday morning the post-Dunfermline decline in the Gordon Brown betting price on succeeding Tony Blair was stopped and punters began betting on him again. This was prompted by widespread coverage of a YouGov poll in the Sunday Times that seemed to state that Labour would do better under the Chancellor than with Blair. This was the critical section of the report: “On the eve of a speech by Brown on…

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Will Gordon take the rap for the May locals?

Will Gordon take the rap for the May locals?

Has Tony handed him a poison chalice? With the attention being on the new “soft focus” Gordon Brown’s wider role few people seem to have picked up on a couple of paragraphs in the Observer at the weekend about Labour’s campaign for the May local elections. For with a “a bloodbath of councillors across the country” expected the plan, apparently, is that Gordon Brown should have a role that means that he takes the rap for any failures. According to…

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Why can’t journalists understand polls?

Why can’t journalists understand polls?

Ignorant media boost Hughes in the betting Four Mondays ago Jackie Ashley wrote a sharp attack in her Guardian column on the influence of betting on politics in the UK and singling out this site in particular for the role it has. But one thing Ashley ought to consider is that those who want to bet successfully on political outcomes have to understand polls – a skill that appears to be sadly lacking amongst many of her colleagues. For those…

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YouGov: Hughes leading amongst party supporters

YouGov: Hughes leading amongst party supporters

..but the Dunfermline victor down 8 points on General Election Lots more for poll watchers this morning with a new YouGov poll showing with changes on the last survey a fortnight ago CON 37%(-2): LAB 39%(-1): LD 15%(+2). On the Lib Dem leadership race the poll shows that amongst all voters Campbell was backed by 18%, Hughes by 16% and Huhne by just 10%. Among party supporters it was Hughes 34%, Campbell 21% Huhne 13%. This has caused a little…

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The challenge facing Cameron even with new boundaries

The challenge facing Cameron even with new boundaries

Anthony Wells – “Tories need a 7.1% swing to secure a majority” The founder of UK PollingReport, Anthony Wells, (seen with Guido at last month’s PB.C party), has today published a down-loadable guide to the new parliamentary boundaries. Anybody tempted to bet on the Tories securing most seats at the General Election should read it because according to Anthony’s study Labour would have won 10 seats fewer at the last election, the Tories 14 seats more and the Lib Dems…

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The Dunfermline aftermath – the punter view

The Dunfermline aftermath – the punter view

A report on the reaction in the betting markets While his party’s spinners were trying to confine the loss of Dunfermline and West Fife as just being down to “local issues” the veteran Derbyshire MP, Dennis Skinner said it was “the biggest by-election upset he had ever witnessed.” The immediate betting reactions have been:- Gordon Brown less likely to be the next Labour leader. There’s been an easing in his price from 0.41/1 to 0.45/1. The view is that if…

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Were the pollsters the other losers on Thursday?

Were the pollsters the other losers on Thursday?

How do you square Dunfermline with the national polls? According to the latest round of surveys from all the main pollsters Labour is performing at or above what it got at the May 2005 General Election. Yet on Thursday its support collapsed and we saw such a massive swing to the Liberal Democrats – which has been recording drops of upto 10 points on last year. From what I can gather Dunfermline was the first occasion in modern times when…

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