Will weighting changes knock 2-3% off Labour’s position? With the chances of Labour winning most seats at the next election down to just 53% on the betting markets could we see further price changes if the polls continue to show a Tory recovery? The next scheduled poll is from Populus early next week and punters should treat the headline results with some care until we have had time to analyse the detail because we might be about to see a…
Would a local election disaster put added pressure on Blair? With leadership issues affecting all three main parties the local elections on May 4th could be crucial. Will the Cameron leadership come successfully through its first electoral test?; can Labour losses be restricted to acceptable levels? and will the Lib Dems continue to make advances in local government? In the four years since there were elections in most of the 6,000 or so council seats at stake the political climate…
Betting options dry up on Menzies If the reported plans of a “senior group of Lib Dem MPs” come to fruition then we could see Sir Menzies Campbell in place as Leader of the party within a matter of weeks. According to reports over the holiday weekend the party’s 64 year old Foreign Affairs spokesman is being lined up replace Charles Kennedy in a putsch. The idea is to present Kennedy with a list of signatures calling on him to…
A round-up of the main markets General Election – most seats. Normal bookmakers – LAB 4/7: CON 11/8. Betting exchanges – LAB 0.87/1: CON 1.16/1. IG Binary spread market. LAB 52-58: CON 42-48. Labour has eased considerably since the emergence of David Cameron and Tony Blair’s first ever Commons defeat. On October 10th, we suggested in anticipation of the “Cameron media love-in, that people should sell Labour the exchange price stood at 0.57/1. General Election – Commons seat spreads. Cantor…