PB.C party-goers discuss the chances

Saturday’s second PB.C party attracted 40+ site regulars including Anthony Wells, founder of UK Polling Report, Guido Fawkes and Ian Dale, the owner of Politicos and who served as David Davis’s chief of staff.

Clearly the Lib Dem leadership race was a key discussion point with many of the Tories there saying the candidate that they most feared was the former MEP, Nick Clegg, who is not a candidate and has come out strongly for Ming Campbell.

Guido Fawkes advised everybody that he had just signed up as a Lib Dem member so that he could vote. Those Lib Dems who had been at the party conference earlier in the day had no clear view over the likely winner.

What we need is a further YouGov poll of party members but, apparently, there’s not likely to be one in the next few days. A key element is the alternative vote PR system that the party uses and this could yet spring a surprise result.

Simon Hughes is popular amongst many activists but commands much less support at Westminster and within the party’s headquarters. He might get a lot of first choices but could be at the bottom of the list of a significant group of voters.

Ming Campbell is reckoned to be the establishment choice and he did beat Hughes by 49-21 in the only members’ poll that has been carried out. He’s likely to get a lot of second preferences which could be crucial provided he is still in there for the final two.

Chris Huhne continues to arouse a lot of interest and many were impressed by the content, if not the delivery, of his Saturday speech.

Mark Oaten’s chances were rated at almost zero by just about everybody at the party.

In the betting Simon Hughes continues to be the favourite although there has been an easing in his price and a tightening in the Campbell one overnight.

My other website: There’s a strong political slant today on the other web-site that I have just launched The-Fundraiser.com. This is aimed at people who are involved in raising money.

Mike Smithson