PB.C Labour General Election Index down to 55%

The spate of opinion polls following David Cameron’s election as Tory Leader of December 6th has reinforced the betting market assessment of Labour’s chances of winning most seats at the next General Election. From a peak of more than 66% during the Labour conference in September the implied probability based on best betting prices has now dropped to below 55%.

Unless there is a Labour recovery in the polls in the New Year then it might not be long before Cameron’s Conservatives move into the favourite slot.

Opinion seems to be divided between those who think that the Cameron effect has put the Tories on the road to victory and those who dismiss the 39 year old Opposition Leader’s media honeymoon as a “Nine Day Wonder”. There seems to be three things in Cameron’s favour.

Firstly the polls show that his most positive quality is that he is “likable as a person” with the last YouGov survey reported a 51-12% split in his favour – even Labour supporters divided 38-22 for Cameron on this point.

The second plus factor – the media with Cameron and his young team showing everyday their expertise here and what we are seeing is not just a honeymoon but a demonstration of their capability to command the headlines.

Thirdly the Brown-Blair split, seen again today with Treasury briefing on the EU budget deal, is hugely damaging to the Government and this will not be solved by Brown taking over. He is now being rated four or five points behind Blair.

Before drawing firm conclusions we need to wait until at least February’s polls.

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Mike Smithson