Punters continue to move away from the Chancellor

Politicalbetting’s Gordon Brown Index based on the best betting prices on him becoming next Labour leader shows a further decline in gambling assessment of the implied probability of him doing it. The move coincides with this afternoon’s Pre-Budget statement when he had to concede that growth forecasts had been slashed to half the figure that he reported in March.

From a peak of 80% in July this evening’s calculation puts the Index at 70.8% – down two and a half full points since we last looked at this five days ago.

But Brown is still the overwhelming favourite to take over from Tony Blair and none of his Labour colleagues has managed to establish him or herself as a threat.

Mike Smithson