But the Cameron-hype has yet to move punters

In the final Politicalbetting General Election Index before David Cameron takes over the Tory leadership there has just been a slight move, less than 0.2% on the week, in our implied probability calculation based on best betting prices in the Labour winning most seats markets.

But the pre-result publicity hype for Cameron has yet to get gamblers reaching for their credit cards. As the chart shows there has been a drop in recent months – but that was mostly down to Tony Blair’s defeat on the 90 day detention provision in the Anti-Terror bill.

A lot might depend on the coming round of opinion polls. If these start to show a Tory recovery then there might be a move on the markets. These are the latest surveys from the main pollsters:-

YouGov 24/11 Con 35: Lab 37: LD 20
Ipsos-MORI 22/11 Con 32: Lab 42: LD 19
ICM 18/11Con 33: Lab 38: LD 19
Populus 06/11 Con 32: Lab 40: LD 19

Meanwhile there has been heavy betting overnight on the Tory leadership even though the Cameron price is now 1/100. Some punters are cashing in on what they see as a sure thing.

Mike Smithson