Punters give Labour a 57% chance of winning most seats

In spite of the emergence of David Cameron, the higher media profile over the leadership election and Tony Blair’s first ever Commons defeat punters still make Labour a very strong favourite to come out top at the next General Election.

Our latest chart based on best betting prices shows how punters are viewing the party’s election chances whenever it is held. The implied probability of a Labour victory is, like on all our charts of historical betting prices, calculated by looking at the best price available over time.

Although betting on who will get most seats at the next General Election is relatively light it does give a snap-shot of how gamblers are rating the chances. This is about which party gets most seats – not whether they get enough to have a majority.

The trend shows the enormous challenge facing the new Tory leader. We are a long way from the point where gamblers will risk much on the Tories coming on top.

From a peak at the time of the Labour conference in Brighton things started to move slightly downwards with the Tory leadership publicity and this was added to by the Terror Bill defeat in the Commons. In total there’s been a 9 point movement against Tony Blair’s party in six weeks.

Our plan is to revise the chart every week between now and the next General Election.

Mike Smithson