Populus shows Labour lead of 8 points

The November Populus survey in the Times this morning gives Labour an 8 point lead over the Tories and is in sharp contrast with the BPIX poll at the weekend which had the two main parties within two points. The shares were with changes on last month: CON 32 (+2): LAB 40 (nc): LD 19 (-2).

And on Tony Blair himself Labour voters disagreed by 54 to 41 with the statement that “the sooner Tony Blair goes and is replaced by Gordon Brown the better”. Even Tory supporters in the survey disagreed.

So in spite of the Tory leadership contest, the Blunkett resignation and the problems that Tony Blair is facing with the Terror Bill his party is still well ahead and Labour supporters want the Prime Minister to stay

It is hard to square today’s Populus survey with the BPIX poll at the weekend which showed Labour’s lead declining by six points. The next regular poll will be the monthly ICM survey for the Guardian which in October had the Labour lead down to three points.

As a gambler I would be more ready to risk money on the basis of a BPIX poll than a Populus one.

In their four General Election surveys the former had Labour on 35% once, 36% once and 37% twice – an impressive record for the newcomer. For large parts of the campaign the Populus tracker poll had Labour above 40%. The actual GB share was 36.2%

For all the focus there has been in PB.C’s discussions on the Tory leadership contest the battle between Cameron and Davis is not commanding that much air-time and newspaper space at the moment.

While polls continue to show solid Labour leads the Tory ballot is largely seen as irrelevant by the media and by the public.

Meanwhile Paddy Power has a market on who is going to replace Peter Snow on the famous “swingometer” on BBC ‘s next General Election results programme. Andrew Marr is the 6/4 favourite.

Mike Smithson