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Month: October 2005

As Cameron becomes favourite can Conway save it for Davis?

As Cameron becomes favourite can Conway save it for Davis?

updated 0645 Will the Davis waverers resist the ex-whip’s “overtures”? With David Cameron now the 1.36/1 firm favourite the focus in the Tory leadership battle moves to Westminster next week where the big issue will be whether the MPs, pictured here on the David Davis website, will stick with the Shadow Home Secretary. Before the conference they had all agreed to allow their names and pictures to be associated with the campaign and if they don’t change their minds then…

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Davis still thinks he’s odds-on favourite

Davis still thinks he’s odds-on favourite

But why’s he talking about the betting at all One of the things that really irritates me is when people tell porkies about betting odds in order to make a political point. Last year I had a go about the Lib Dems claiming to be “second favourite” in the London Mayoral race and now David Davis is saying on TV that he’s still “odds-on” to win the leadership contest. He made the statement in a BBC interview this morning and…

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Will the falling betting price cause Davis MPs to switch?

Will the falling betting price cause Davis MPs to switch?

Tory leadership: Implied probability of Davis based on best betting price What are the dangers of having less than a 50:50 chance? One of the key arguments used by Davis’s team as they have sought to persuade Tory MPs to make public declarations of support has been the Shadow Home Secretary’s position in the betting. After all, they were saying, if the bookies are rating Davis so highly you would be a fool to back anybody other than the “obvious”…

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How will individual papers line up on the Tory leadership?

How will individual papers line up on the Tory leadership?

How will editors be influenced by the events in Blackpool? With the final decision over the next Tory leader being in the hands of the party’s grass-roots a key dimension will be how the press, particularly the traditional Tory-backers, line up behind the different candidates. The media views and endorsements could be critical this weekend as Tory MPs go back to their constituencies and get feedback ahead of the parliamentary party’s shortlisting election at Westminster. In 2001 it is generally…

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Punters desert Davis after lacklustre speech

Punters desert Davis after lacklustre speech

Big changes on the betting markets this morning after the front-runner, David Davis, made his 20 minutes speech to delegates assembled in Blackpool’s Winter Gardens. On the Betfair betting exchange the Davis price opened at 0.78/1 – thus a £100 bet would produce profits of £78. Within an hour of him finishing the price had slumped to 1.08/1. So a wining bet will, as of time of posting, produce £108. This is a long way off what 0.58/1 that was…

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Davis still in a commanding lead

Davis still in a commanding lead

Tory leadership: RED Davis, BLACK Clarke, BLUE Cameron, GREEN Fox But will he suffer the favourite’s curse? For all the media is focusing on Ken Clarke’s speech this morning the big change in our implied probability chart based on best betting prices has been towards the 38 year old Shadow Education Secretary, David Cameron, who is now back to second favourite. The Shadow Home Secretary goes into his platform speech today with the knowledge that in terms of public declarations…

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Clarke drops behind Cameron on the Betfair exchange

Clarke drops behind Cameron on the Betfair exchange

After a morning of relatively heavy activity on the betting markets the ex-Etonian, David Cameron, has now moved into second favourite position on Betfair. At the time of this post he was on was at 4/1 compared with the 4.6/1 available on Ken Clarke. Whether this will be sustained after Ken Clarke’s speech this afternoon we will have to wait and see but Cameron continues to get serious attention from the punters. David Davis, meanwhile, has moved a little bit…

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The Betting Markets give Day One to Cameron

The Betting Markets give Day One to Cameron

Could we be heading for a Davis-Cameron final? The first day “winner” of the Tory Party conference according to the way the betting has moved is indisputably the Shadow Education Secretary, David Cameron. While all the other contenders have seen their prices ease or stay the same only Cameron has seen a sharp tightening. Although Ken Clarke is still second in the betting behind David Davis the former Chancellor’s price has eased while Cameron’s has seen a very sharp movement…

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